Application of the MUSLE Model and Potential Effects of Climate Change in a Small Alpine Catchment in Northern Italy

The evaluation of sediment yield by water erosion taking into consideration the possible impact climate change is object this work, concerning use Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in an Italian case study. This empirical model was implemented a Geographical Information System, account Alpine hydrology and geomorphological parameters, which are crucial analysis intensity variability production processes. study Guerna Creek basin, small-sized mountain watershed placed Lombardy, South-Central Alps (Northern Italy). In recent decades it has been hit at same time floods erosive phenomena, showing its hydraulic-hydrological weakness. Three future scenarios from 2041 to 2060, around middle century, were built according CORDEX data referring three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, 8.5). findings showed that climate, basin scale might 24–44% for single heavy storm current century.